What Can We Learn About the Job Market from Previous Downturns?

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With application volume climbing and a tighter job market looming, the next few years aren’t going to be a cakewalk for MBA applicants—or for newly minted grads.

It’ll be harder to get in. And it may be even harder to land the job you want.

But here’s the thing: this isn’t the first time. It’s not even the worst time. Every new wave of MBAs says, “This time, it’s different.” Those who’ve been through it before know otherwise. The details change. The cycles don’t.

So what can we actually learn from past downturns?

1. Be Pragmatic

Let’s start with the obvious: you might not get your dream job.

Frankly, most people don’t. Even in boom times, career switchers struggle to convince a company to take a chance. And even those with relevant experience get ghosted. It’s just hard to get a good job, period.

In a recession? Even harder.

So take the pressure off. Go in eyes open.

2. Know What (and What Not) to Settle For

Some people panic and grab the first offer they can find. Others hold out for 18 months to get what they want.

Both turned out just fine.

The difference? They knew themselves. They tuned out the noise and made the decision based on their own needs—not what their classmates were doing. If you’ve got financial runway, you can afford to be patient. If you need income now, that’s not a moral failing.

It’s not a game of optics. It’s your life. Your bank account. Your timeline.

3. There’s More Than One Path to Your Goal

Let’s say you do have a dream job in mind—say, private equity or venture or luxury brand marketing. You might not get there right away. That doesn’t mean you won’t get there eventually.

In downturns, the path is often more winding. Sometimes, you have to zigzag your way there through side doors. It might take a few years.

But if it’s something you really want, a delayed timeline shouldn’t matter.

4. Ditch the Templates

There’s no formula. No secret playbook. No 10-step LinkedIn post that guarantees results.

MBAs love benchmarking. They crave peer validation. But groupthink is real—and often paralyzing. Don’t confuse what everyone else is doing with what you should be doing.

Use convention as a reference point, not a constraint. Forge your own path. Seriously.

5. You’ll Be Fine

Almost everyone who graduated during a bad year—2001, 2009, 2020—landed on their feet. Yes, some had to move back in with their parents. Some took jobs they didn’t love. Others sat on the bench longer than expected.

But years later, they’re doing just fine. Most don’t even remember the specifics of what made them so anxious back then.

It’s hard to remember when you’re caught in it—but you’re getting an MBA, not surviving a war zone. You’ll be okay. Even if you have to take your pre-MBA job back or do something unsexy for a while. Work is work. And life’s long.

6. Careers Aren’t Linear Anymore

Your parents had neat, linear careers. You won’t.

Today, people zigzag. Lawyers go to med school. Bankers join rock bands. Startup founders go corporate. Corporate vets start bakeries. Stay-at-home parents jump back in. Careers are random. That’s the new normal.

So don’t over-index on where you start. That’s not the path—it’s just a path. Expect detours.

7. Not Getting What You Want Might Be a Gift

Some of the best career turns happen when your Plan A falls through.

But you’ve got to be open to it.

If you’re focused but flexible—clear on what drives you, but open to detours—you’ll be better off than most. That’s the mindset that will carry you through not just b-school, but the chaos that follows.

Final Thought: Stay Grounded, Stay Open

The MBAs who panic during downturns are the ones who bet everything on prestige. The ones who stay calm are usually the ones who know who they are and aren’t afraid of a curveball or two.

If you’re applying to b-school this year—or starting soon—keep your head on straight. The market may not cooperate, but your mindset still can.

Want help on your MBA applications?

Want help crafting a grounded, strategic story for your MBA applications—especially in a tougher market? The MBA App Assistant helps you connect the dots between who you are, what you want, and how to tell your story with clarity and confidence.